"Hooliganism" in Belarus?

An understatement, given the scope of the events in the country where, today, a bomb blast, as well as the discovery of a second unexploded device in Minsk, took place. Observers, and the Belarusian opposition (anachronism-sounding, as they are not much of an opposition, nor have they ever been), are predicting more crackdowns as President Lukashenka begins pitting the blame on someone, emboldening his own claims that the outside world and internal fifth columns are out to destroy the country.

But Lukashenka is himself unnerved, it seems, and not solely because the concert he was attending was disrupted by these events. This BBC report cites "rumours," if nothing else, of discontent within secret police echelons, Lukashenka's political circle and other state elements that are brewing beneath the surface. Without a hint of irony, the report states: "Moreover, it happened on the very anniversary of the capital's liberation from Nazi occupation, near the impressive monument to WWII heroes. It could have hardly been more symbolic."

What is indisputable is that this is significant: Belarus long had the reputation, for better or worse, of being something of a sideshow to the Soviet Union and, later, a bastion of old-world and antiquated politics -- and this, of course, not solely coming from me. That bomb blasts have come to this country is telling and a signal that, in the end, everyone is a cohabitant of this insane planet, irrespective of ideology, dispositions or levels of democratic development.

Victory by default

So it has come to pass: Robert Mugabe is the official 'winner' of Zimbabwe's run-off vote. Never mind that all results have not come in yet, or that a substantial number of ballot papers were wilfully spoilt by disgusted voters. Shams are shams, but this is just plain insanity.

Perhaps he should change his name to Mobutu and eliminate the whole wasteful facade he has made out of elections in the country. Mugabe's already wearing shirts emblazoned with his own portrait, and not even pretending to follow some kind of protocol. Zimbabwe is the fief of Zanu-PF, and the descent carries on.

All this, while the rest of the world pontificates just what else would be prudent to do next. This is not over yet.

When hope dies

Hope has all but totally died out in Zimbabwe. That is the essence of what is happening in the country today. As I write, a run-off vote is taking place, many weeks after initial presidential elections took place, but the results of which were delayed because President (and incumbent) Robert Mugabe's followers were caught with their pants down after it came to light that they had come second-place.

Veteran BBC correspondent John Simpson, in this melancholy report, writes that the violence, intimidation, killings and arbitrary arrests and imprisonments, stem from this humiliation. It is as if Mugabe, the grand old man of Zimbabwean politics, and the architect of its very collapse, has told his citizenry that this would be the price for resistance, even to obvious electoral shams.

MDC candidate, and official contender for the Presidency, Morgan Tsvangirai, is now hiding in the Dutch embassy, where he is fearing for his life. Mobs of pro-Mugabe vigilantes are scouring the country, checking citizenry if they have voted for Mugabe, while the President himself is assured of a victory, since Tsvangirai officially pulled out of the election. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, without surprise, says it came too late to remove his name from the ballots, presenting two challenges: easier means to identify those casting protest votes against Mugabe, and more window-dressing legitimacy for the unchallenged incumbent.

What comes out of these past weeks, a topic worth examination in itself, is the conduct of South Africa's Thabo Mbeki, who has maintained a platform of "quiet diplomacy," which really amounts to silence in the wake of Mugabe's conduct. Mbeki's conduct has precedent, and goes back to the beginnings of his administration. This New York Review of Books article gives a primer into South Africa's role. Nelson Mandela has come out to criticize Mugabe, but a tad-bit too late, it seems.

This development is becoming far more ridiculous as times goes on. It must show just to what low levels Mugabe's government has dropped, to be engaging in such insults to democracy and ordinary intelligence. Were it not so tragic and impact-ridden, I would wage that Mugabe would be the subject of a really bad comedy. As things look now, it seems we will be dealing with the Zimbabwean President for yet another five-year term...unless, of course, something happens to him personally, but which is a different subject in and of itself.

Back to the home base

Apologies for the month-plus writing hiatus, but I recently returned from a month-long excursion in Europe that took me to a total of four countries: Montenegro, Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Even before I left, I told friends and family that it was interesting that I would be visiting the remnants of two super-federations that, around the same time, collapsed: Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia.

I had attempted to submit posts while overseas, but I was unsuccessful, since Montenegrin Internet service providers -- or, at least, the one to which I had access -- were slow, while elsewhere, my online time was limited, and I spent it reading and writing e-mails to friends and family, whenever possible.

I am still digesting the whole experience and, quite frankly, I miss all of the countries I visited. To date, this has been the longest excursion that I have taken, but even here, I remain frustrated at only having scratched the surface of understanding and learning of these places. Some of the things I saw confirmed what I had long suspected and written about, while other things baffled me and -- imagine that! -- proved me wrong. In seriousness, I will return very soon, though I am not quite sure how or when, but it will be very soon.

Every trip abroad, whether it be short or long, tells you something about the people that are your co-travellers, but also a lot about yourself. Being away from the monotony and hecticness of home life and responsibilities in Toronto (or wherever one's base may be) keeps you aloof from things, and shows you a perspective one oneself that, sometimes, you would have thought never existed. I went through this experience too, and am still undergoing it.

More to come later; once I catch my breath, political blogging on this wee End of the Line shall resume. Fear not, readers, for I have returned, and the world has not improved one iota while I was gone, it seems!

Yet another collective sigh of relief

Parliamentary elections were held in Serbia this past weekend. Though predictions were in flux, paralleling the opinion polls of Serbian voters, President Boris Tadic's pro-Western coalition won, though not enough to command a majority in the parliament. Tadic, whose party is, in itself, a coalition, will have to forge a coalition with other parties in order to govern.

It is not impossible: one need only look back to Slovakia following its September 1998 election, in which another "coalition of the coalition" had enough clout to nudge autocratic Premier Vladimir Meciar out of power, even though his party commanded the largest bloc of voters. The Slovak arrangement survived because of the sheer will of its politicians and voters, who were implicitly promised better diplomacy and relations with the EU and NATO.

The latter two appear to be using this same reasoning with the Serbs, though it is hard to tell what the willpower aspect of the electorate looks like. The Radical Party, though suffering an electoral defeat, could theoretically muster enough coalition partners to run a government, and it does have its support base from disgruntled people incensed by Kosovo's independence and the slow pace of economic reforms.

This weekend's election is, perhaps, the dark underbelly to having proportional representation: while it fosters more political pluralism and participation, it also creates the danger of perpetual deadlock and a whole host of deja-vu's the day after elections.

Problematic, yes...but not as problematic as was Slobodan Milosevic, whose ghost still haunts the region.

A further notch for Slovakia

Though accession to the European Union is considered to be a benchmark for candidate countries, particularly those that had once been part of the Communist bloc, there is probably no other prestige that can be endowed to such newly transformed nations as being invited to join the Eurozone.

Tiny Slovakia, a nation right at the heart of Central Europe, is currently revelling in this reality. It would appear that the fears and ambivalence surrounding the Premiership of Robert Fico -- notably his coalition government involving two anti-establishment parties with a track record of trouble, irresponsibility and semi-authoritarian forms of governance -- has not been as problematic as observers and skeptics had thought.

Fico was elected in 2006, on a slightly left-of-centre platform, whereupon he reversed many of his predecessor's economic and social policies. Apparently, many Slovak voters were concerned that economic reform had been too rapid for them to keep up, and he tapped into this sentiment quite effectively. He had popularity and credentials backing him, including a stint as a human rights lawyer, but also made disparaging statements about Slovakia's prominent minorities. Many votes that had once gone to former Premier Vladimir Meciar's party swayed to Fico.

Acceptance to the Eurozone has been made all the more significant for Slovakia because it is the only post-communist country, but for Slovenia, which already uses the Euro, to have passed such thresholds. As the BBC story reports: "It is only the second former communist country after Slovenia to pass the euro's strict criteria and is likely to be the last for some time...Poland, Hungary and the Baltic states are not expected to join the euro until well after 2010."

It is part of a succession of good news for Slovakia. Ten years ago, when the country was in the throes of economic, political and diplomatic meltdown thanks to Meciar's tenure, of which I recently explored and wrote about, this would have been a mere pipe dream. No more, thankfully. I can imagine that many pints of studene pivo will be consumed over this news!

Missing results and "the mother of all election riggings..."

Nothing new, it seems, from the elections in Zimbabwe. The "recount" has been predictable, indicating a larger support for the country's official opposition MDC (47.9%), while Mugabe was endowed with second place (43.2%). No one, obviously, crossed the electoral threshold, so a run-off vote is imminent in the coming weeks.

Says Mugabe's former Information Minister Jonathan Moyo: "The mind of the electorate is now so fixed against Mugabe that if he were to contest against a donkey in the run-off, the donkey would win by a landslide not because anyone would vote for it, but simply because people would vote against Mugabe."

Let's hope this kind of momentum keeps up and overshadows any voting irregularities or tinkering on the part of the authorities. If caught with their proverbial pants down, I doubt that Mugabe's loyalists would be able to explain their way out of it. In the aftermath of the spring 2000 parliamentary elections, if I recall correctly, the authorities, though utilizing fraud to win victory, were shocked by the turnout of voters that went against the Zanu-PF grain...and then proceeded to clamp down on all protests viciously and violently by way of revenge.

Cohesive voting contra the authorities could, in theory, eclipse any fraud. If Mugabe chooses to resort to even grander fraud to secure another victory, then it could not be carefully tucked away -- and the rest of the region and world would know what is already, in effect, known. The legitimacy factor would be gone.

If the priorities of outside powers prove conducive to collective amnesia and malaise, however, then perhaps something of this sort would be do-able. After all, "The days that preceded the announcement were dark ones -- broken limbs, burned huts, dead bodies and unofficial curfews were widely reported." All of this would be but part of an ongoing pattern.