Parliamentary elections were held in Serbia this past weekend. Though predictions were in flux, paralleling the opinion polls of Serbian voters, President Boris Tadic's pro-Western coalition won, though not enough to command a majority in the parliament. Tadic, whose party is, in itself, a coalition, will have to forge a coalition with other parties in order to govern.
It is not impossible: one need only look back to Slovakia following its September 1998 election, in which another "coalition of the coalition" had enough clout to nudge autocratic Premier Vladimir Meciar out of power, even though his party commanded the largest bloc of voters. The Slovak arrangement survived because of the sheer will of its politicians and voters, who were implicitly promised better diplomacy and relations with the EU and NATO.
The latter two appear to be using this same reasoning with the Serbs, though it is hard to tell what the willpower aspect of the electorate looks like. The Radical Party, though suffering an electoral defeat, could theoretically muster enough coalition partners to run a government, and it does have its support base from disgruntled people incensed by Kosovo's independence and the slow pace of economic reforms.
This weekend's election is, perhaps, the dark underbelly to having proportional representation: while it fosters more political pluralism and participation, it also creates the danger of perpetual deadlock and a whole host of deja-vu's the day after elections.
Problematic, yes...but not as problematic as was Slobodan Milosevic, whose ghost still haunts the region.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Saturday, May 10, 2008
A further notch for Slovakia
Though accession to the European Union is considered to be a benchmark for candidate countries, particularly those that had once been part of the Communist bloc, there is probably no other prestige that can be endowed to such newly transformed nations as being invited to join the Eurozone.
Tiny Slovakia, a nation right at the heart of Central Europe, is currently revelling in this reality. It would appear that the fears and ambivalence surrounding the Premiership of Robert Fico -- notably his coalition government involving two anti-establishment parties with a track record of trouble, irresponsibility and semi-authoritarian forms of governance -- has not been as problematic as observers and skeptics had thought.
Fico was elected in 2006, on a slightly left-of-centre platform, whereupon he reversed many of his predecessor's economic and social policies. Apparently, many Slovak voters were concerned that economic reform had been too rapid for them to keep up, and he tapped into this sentiment quite effectively. He had popularity and credentials backing him, including a stint as a human rights lawyer, but also made disparaging statements about Slovakia's prominent minorities. Many votes that had once gone to former Premier Vladimir Meciar's party swayed to Fico.
Acceptance to the Eurozone has been made all the more significant for Slovakia because it is the only post-communist country, but for Slovenia, which already uses the Euro, to have passed such thresholds. As the BBC story reports: "It is only the second former communist country after Slovenia to pass the euro's strict criteria and is likely to be the last for some time...Poland, Hungary and the Baltic states are not expected to join the euro until well after 2010."
It is part of a succession of good news for Slovakia. Ten years ago, when the country was in the throes of economic, political and diplomatic meltdown thanks to Meciar's tenure, of which I recently explored and wrote about, this would have been a mere pipe dream. No more, thankfully. I can imagine that many pints of studene pivo will be consumed over this news!
Tiny Slovakia, a nation right at the heart of Central Europe, is currently revelling in this reality. It would appear that the fears and ambivalence surrounding the Premiership of Robert Fico -- notably his coalition government involving two anti-establishment parties with a track record of trouble, irresponsibility and semi-authoritarian forms of governance -- has not been as problematic as observers and skeptics had thought.
Fico was elected in 2006, on a slightly left-of-centre platform, whereupon he reversed many of his predecessor's economic and social policies. Apparently, many Slovak voters were concerned that economic reform had been too rapid for them to keep up, and he tapped into this sentiment quite effectively. He had popularity and credentials backing him, including a stint as a human rights lawyer, but also made disparaging statements about Slovakia's prominent minorities. Many votes that had once gone to former Premier Vladimir Meciar's party swayed to Fico.
Acceptance to the Eurozone has been made all the more significant for Slovakia because it is the only post-communist country, but for Slovenia, which already uses the Euro, to have passed such thresholds. As the BBC story reports: "It is only the second former communist country after Slovenia to pass the euro's strict criteria and is likely to be the last for some time...Poland, Hungary and the Baltic states are not expected to join the euro until well after 2010."
It is part of a succession of good news for Slovakia. Ten years ago, when the country was in the throes of economic, political and diplomatic meltdown thanks to Meciar's tenure, of which I recently explored and wrote about, this would have been a mere pipe dream. No more, thankfully. I can imagine that many pints of studene pivo will be consumed over this news!
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Missing results and "the mother of all election riggings..."
Nothing new, it seems, from the elections in Zimbabwe. The "recount" has been predictable, indicating a larger support for the country's official opposition MDC (47.9%), while Mugabe was endowed with second place (43.2%). No one, obviously, crossed the electoral threshold, so a run-off vote is imminent in the coming weeks.
Says Mugabe's former Information Minister Jonathan Moyo: "The mind of the electorate is now so fixed against Mugabe that if he were to contest against a donkey in the run-off, the donkey would win by a landslide not because anyone would vote for it, but simply because people would vote against Mugabe."
Let's hope this kind of momentum keeps up and overshadows any voting irregularities or tinkering on the part of the authorities. If caught with their proverbial pants down, I doubt that Mugabe's loyalists would be able to explain their way out of it. In the aftermath of the spring 2000 parliamentary elections, if I recall correctly, the authorities, though utilizing fraud to win victory, were shocked by the turnout of voters that went against the Zanu-PF grain...and then proceeded to clamp down on all protests viciously and violently by way of revenge.
Cohesive voting contra the authorities could, in theory, eclipse any fraud. If Mugabe chooses to resort to even grander fraud to secure another victory, then it could not be carefully tucked away -- and the rest of the region and world would know what is already, in effect, known. The legitimacy factor would be gone.
If the priorities of outside powers prove conducive to collective amnesia and malaise, however, then perhaps something of this sort would be do-able. After all, "The days that preceded the announcement were dark ones -- broken limbs, burned huts, dead bodies and unofficial curfews were widely reported." All of this would be but part of an ongoing pattern.
Says Mugabe's former Information Minister Jonathan Moyo: "The mind of the electorate is now so fixed against Mugabe that if he were to contest against a donkey in the run-off, the donkey would win by a landslide not because anyone would vote for it, but simply because people would vote against Mugabe."
Let's hope this kind of momentum keeps up and overshadows any voting irregularities or tinkering on the part of the authorities. If caught with their proverbial pants down, I doubt that Mugabe's loyalists would be able to explain their way out of it. In the aftermath of the spring 2000 parliamentary elections, if I recall correctly, the authorities, though utilizing fraud to win victory, were shocked by the turnout of voters that went against the Zanu-PF grain...and then proceeded to clamp down on all protests viciously and violently by way of revenge.
Cohesive voting contra the authorities could, in theory, eclipse any fraud. If Mugabe chooses to resort to even grander fraud to secure another victory, then it could not be carefully tucked away -- and the rest of the region and world would know what is already, in effect, known. The legitimacy factor would be gone.
If the priorities of outside powers prove conducive to collective amnesia and malaise, however, then perhaps something of this sort would be do-able. After all, "The days that preceded the announcement were dark ones -- broken limbs, burned huts, dead bodies and unofficial curfews were widely reported." All of this would be but part of an ongoing pattern.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Croatian ghosts emerge anew
This is a story that came out of nowhere: "Croatia has been criticised for a lack of political will in arresting Nazis for the second year in a row."
Granted, the story contains a slight misnomer, as Croatian fascists were not "Nazis" per-se (that is, members of the German National Socialists), but rather, known by their proper name of Ustashe. Their history, and of Croatia during the Second World War, is very ugly.
All the same, it is fascinating that there are still living war criminals from that bygone era that have managed to evade prosecution. It is not surprising, however, that Croatia still struggles in bringing them to justice. The Second World War in the country remains hugely contentious, and even though the historical record of just what happened can be gleaned from sources within the country and beyond, it remains heavily politicized. For those who have experienced such politicization first-hand, like myself, that word is a gross understatement.
The Ustasha movement, while totally marginalized in the interwar period, only came to power thanks to the machinations of the Axis Tripartite. They tapped, however, into the deep reserves of Croatian self-determination, which had been denied to them within the Yugoslav context.
Pegged together, this made them a noxious and dynamite-laden phenomenon. It was made worse by Croatia's nationhood in 1991, which came on the heels of a vicious war with Serbia, in which nationalists toked past history and grievances, including the Ustasha experience, thereby pegging them to an apparent long line of struggles for Croatian self-assertion.
The lingering effects of this last war are still strong throughout Croatia, as Ivo Goldstein has pointed out in his magnificent history of Croatia, and there has been a nasty underbelly of whitewashing of the Ustashe crimes that took place from 1941-1945 -- including the genocide of the country's Serbs, Jews and Roma. This peaked in the later 1990s, with waves of increased conservatism in the country.
As such, bringing it all back to this particular story at hand, it makes it easy for such war criminals (i.e. 92 year-old Milivoj Asner) to evade justice, not just on account of his advanced age, but because there is a lack of will to bring him to justice. Trying Asner, the embodiment not only of evil to objective observers, but of the forces of Croatian "liberation" and "self-defense" for supporters, jingoists and nationalists alike, would be tantamount of betrayal.
Betrayal, after all, in the Balkans is a matter over which people kill, and have been killed.
Granted, the story contains a slight misnomer, as Croatian fascists were not "Nazis" per-se (that is, members of the German National Socialists), but rather, known by their proper name of Ustashe. Their history, and of Croatia during the Second World War, is very ugly.
All the same, it is fascinating that there are still living war criminals from that bygone era that have managed to evade prosecution. It is not surprising, however, that Croatia still struggles in bringing them to justice. The Second World War in the country remains hugely contentious, and even though the historical record of just what happened can be gleaned from sources within the country and beyond, it remains heavily politicized. For those who have experienced such politicization first-hand, like myself, that word is a gross understatement.
The Ustasha movement, while totally marginalized in the interwar period, only came to power thanks to the machinations of the Axis Tripartite. They tapped, however, into the deep reserves of Croatian self-determination, which had been denied to them within the Yugoslav context.
Pegged together, this made them a noxious and dynamite-laden phenomenon. It was made worse by Croatia's nationhood in 1991, which came on the heels of a vicious war with Serbia, in which nationalists toked past history and grievances, including the Ustasha experience, thereby pegging them to an apparent long line of struggles for Croatian self-assertion.
The lingering effects of this last war are still strong throughout Croatia, as Ivo Goldstein has pointed out in his magnificent history of Croatia, and there has been a nasty underbelly of whitewashing of the Ustashe crimes that took place from 1941-1945 -- including the genocide of the country's Serbs, Jews and Roma. This peaked in the later 1990s, with waves of increased conservatism in the country.
As such, bringing it all back to this particular story at hand, it makes it easy for such war criminals (i.e. 92 year-old Milivoj Asner) to evade justice, not just on account of his advanced age, but because there is a lack of will to bring him to justice. Trying Asner, the embodiment not only of evil to objective observers, but of the forces of Croatian "liberation" and "self-defense" for supporters, jingoists and nationalists alike, would be tantamount of betrayal.
Betrayal, after all, in the Balkans is a matter over which people kill, and have been killed.
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