Campaign 2008 morning after

It is slightly later than the morning after the 14 October 2008 federal election in Canada, which was this country's fortieth since 1867. Perhaps it is befitting that I am posting something so much later, as if out of symbolism in the profound shock and disbelief that has hovered over observers and pundits, candidates and others, irrespective of their partisan stripes or ideological dispositions.

In the past, some have told me that I am not necessarily qualified to comment on Canadian affairs, solely because I have spent most of my professional life studying the politics of international places and zones that many English-speakers still tend to view as terra incognita.

All the same, I am a proud and passionate Canadian, and always will be. My parents and other members of my family came to this country to escape war, occupation and certain repression from their particular homeland, and have made this country their permanent home and nation. I hope that this is sufficient backing for me to comment on the events of the past few days without invoking the ire of those that may happen to disagree with what I have to say. It really is not much.

I was closely watching the Liberals in this campaign, as I had many times before on both the federal and provincial levels. Their disastrous defeat, just above their worst historic defeat level in 1867, but also right below that which took place in 1984, is as shameful as it is shocking. It serves as a warning shot to its tattered numbers and members to clean up their act, unify, and start acting like the mighty party that they historically have been in this country.

Ever since Chretien stepped down and allowed his (short-lived) successor, Paul Martin, to take the helm, it is as if the Liberal Party has been cast adrift in a foggy, murky and potentially stormy sea from which they have not been able to set course. They have been like squabbling children without a sense of direction and purpose ever since, winding up with a leader -- Stephane Dion -- whose intelligence and integrity has also been matched by his neophyte-like qualities and narrow-minded intent.

Now, on the eve of what many people are anticipating is going to be his resignation as party leader, he leaves behind a very ignoble legacy. One could compare him to the present US President, whose begging and whining before television cameras in the initial wake of the bailout package rejection made him look embarrassingly un-Presidential.

Is this the legacy that will be bequeathed to Mr. Dion? The Liberals now have Messrs Martin and Dion to chalk up as historical footnotes to their mighty legacy in Canadian political history. The upcoming future leader of the party has these ghosts to contend with, as well as building things up on so many multiple levels; whoever it may be, I certainly do not envy them. Nor do I envy those Liberals that were openly rooting for Dion, calling him the next Prime Minister of Canada. I reckon that they have a lot of egg on their faces that needs washing.

Not all is lost, of course, and the Conservatives can hardly call this a victory for themselves, even though they did win a larger minority government than last time. Voter turnout was at 58-59%, which is the lowest in this country's history; for the Tories, it means that even less people actually voted for them. Then again, this same thing can be said for all the parties that partook in the election.

So much more could have been done by the Liberals, whose 38-day campaign was blighted by mismanagement, mishaps, disorganization, and a confused sense of direction and mandate that lacked simplicity. Dion tried to sell, against his advisers' advice, it now has emerged, a complex plan that left so much open to doubt when most Canadians feared the effects of the current economic turmoil.

So many electoral ridings in Ontario, my home province, had neck-to-neck results that swayed to the Conservatives. They could easily have gone (and, in most cases, could have actually remained) Liberal had they only tried harder and been better at it. The Liberals know a thing or two about winning huge majorities and mandates, but I guess this just could not transpire this time around. It tells a lot about the ways in which many Canadians view politics and the contenders that play out their business on Parliament Hill.

If there is a lesson to be learned, it is that this election was a warning shot for them. A warning shot that the time for internal disunity and wishy-washy nose-picking is long gone, and serious work needs to be done. A warning shot that their Conservative rivals came within earshot of achieving a majority mandate by actually doing some incredibly ridiculous things during the campaign and before. A warning shot that is a reminder of the importance of unity, direction and the perils of internal divisions.

I just hope these lessons are absorbed and taken straight to heart. Because, if the Liberals are reduced to a tertiary bunch of outsiders in Canadian politics, then I suspect few people, across all the spectrums that reside in this incredible and amazing country, will be snickering.

Elections, elections, elections...

Elections are everywhere this year. Canadians and Americans are facing them, and coming from the Great White North myself, I have a hunch that our version of them is going to be totally shadowed in significance by what happens south of us.

Ukraine, of course, is facing the possibility of more parliamentary elections in the near future, provided that the so-called "Orange" coalition is able to come back together and actually govern. It collapsed several days ago because of the same old infighting that has characterized Ukrainian politics since the November-December 2003 breakthrough that is beginning to be shadowed by the long hangover in the country.

Makes for a tough transition, to say the least. More elections, in some parts of the world, are a mixed bag of curse and blessing. With an assertive Russia now rearing itself before the former Soviet Union and beyond, it's looking like it will be even tougher for Ukraine to actually assert itself.

Russia, Georgia and everything else

A brief note on this Labour Day weekend about the Russian-Georgian conflict, which has provoked military and diplomatic responses that are closely rivalled only by the war of words and rhetoric that has ensued throughout the media landscape.

I know little about the nature of Georgia's problems, or the origins of the secessionist conflicts in its regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, only that they too, like the other frozen conflicts across the former Soviet Union, are rooted in the Soviet period and were made fertile by lackadaisical Soviet planners that haphazardly drew maps that did not always correspond to ground-level demographics. Some say this was a deliberate divide-and-rule tactic orchestrated by Moscow in dealing with the other nationalities.

Here, then, is a piece about the war of words and diplomatic pot-shots that show no signs of stopping. At the end of the day, there is everything to loose and nothing to gain -- for everyone involved -- in prolonging it.

No games, please: you're on trial!

Fresh from a short trip to Turkey and completing some unfinished business for grad school, I was -- as millions of others were too -- greeted with this ridiculous news of Radovan Karadzic's refusal to enter a plea in his trial. This exchange is worth quoting in full:

"As to count one of the indictment," the judge had begun. "You're charged with genocide... How do you plead, guilty or not guilty?"

"I will not plead, in line with my standpoint as regards this court," Mr Karadzic replied.

"I shall therefore enter a plea on your behalf of not guilty," the judge said.

"Is that the position you're going to take in relation to each of the other 10 charges on the indictment?"

"Absolutely, yes," Mr Karadzic confirmed.

As Judge Bonomy entered the not guilty pleas, the former Bosnian Serb leader asked: "May I hold you to your word?"

"Which word?" asked the judge.

"That I'm not guilty," replied Mr Karadzic.

"We shall see in due course, Mr Karadzic," the judge said."

Talk about nerve, this truly is ridiculous. Next thing that will happen is a further song-and-dance about nonexistent conspiracies, illegitimacy, propaganda and victimization by sheer circumstance. I wonder how Karadzic, and others like him, were able to hoodwink so many people for such a long period of time with baseless claims like this.

'The criminal is caught and we leave the money on his account"

Or so declared Bosnian President Haris Silajdzic, in a recent interview. Amid everything that has happened in the region of ex-Yugoslavia -- Kosovo issuing new passports to its citizens, Karadzic making his first appearance before the Hague Tribunal without entering a plea so as to stonewall, and complaints from some Croatian groups about the evident pro-Ustasha sympathies of a Croatian rock star -- Bosnia remains a sideshow.

In November 1995, the Dayton agreement officially ended the war in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and brought the official leaders of all its warring factions to the bargaining table. A new constitution was drafted, and the de facto partition that had ensued during the war became an entrenched reality. As Bosnia currently stands, it is divided into two rough halves: something called 'Republika Srpska,' and the Muslim-Croat 'Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina.' It corresponds, give or take, to the respective ethnic make-up of each entity.

Bosnia's President, mixing hope with reality, declared in this interview what many analysts and watchers of the region had noticed all along, but which have been given a new kick-start with Kosovo's declaration of independence back in February. While Bosnia is at peace, barring the divisions among Bosniaks and Croats, as well as of both in relation to Bosnia's Serbs, vicious undertones are at work.

"Bosnia is in peace exactly because that project succeeded. Hundreds of thousands of -- at least half a million -- people are outside their own country because they have been ethnically cleansed, they're not there, because they were forced to get out under the threat of death. Our constitutional arrangement is such that actually it rewards the aggression and genocide and ethnic cleansing and so on."

Partition, whether it be supervised or unilateral, appears to be on the table now, though no one is saying it outright. Taking Kosovo's example, which was a culmination of several ground-level realities that made it a state in everything but name, this becomes all the more apparent.

Peter Galbraith, just as a comparison, has argued a similar trend has happened in post-invasion Iraq, whereby the country is now essentially divided up into three factions/mini-states, a reality that the next American President will have to take into account so as to enact a gradual withdrawal from the country.

Way back, in the aftermath of Dayton, Bosnia's future looked troubled and uncertain; nothing has changed for the better since then, and I would bet that Balkan borders, even after Kosovo, may well still be anything but permanent. That the "great powers" of this new century are doing little, if anything, about this -- though, to be fair, just what can they do? -- makes it all the more frustrating and tragic.

It will, on a humorous note, keep Balkan watchers in business for the foreseeable future.

Economic meltdown in Zimbabwe

Apparently, the Zimbabwean government has now released new currency: instead of bank notes issued in increments of $10,000,000, they have decided to cut off all the zeroes. So, in this warped form of mathematics, that figure has now become $1. Hyperinflation, eat your heart out.

Robert Mugabe, who won unopposed in the last Presidential 'election,' has now begun reaching out to the opposition, as per the mediation of South Africa's President, although the talks are reportedly in a deadlock. Not surprising, once again.

The BBC's correspondent in the country, albeit by secret camera, has released this report, which I recommend readers watch. Food shopping will take on a whole new meaning after this.

Everything, however, in international affairs, has its origins. I would be interested in tracing the origins of this Mugabe phenomenon in greater depth. Perhaps a project for the future? We shall see.

Will the real Serbian revolution please start now!

A general rule of thumb surrounding events in Serbia, or involving Serbian populations in neighbouring countries of the region, is that the unsavoury reality of radicalism in the country oozes out, completely contrary to what is happening at a given moment.

I alluded to this factor in previous posts on Kosovo's independence, as well as Radovan Karadzic's capture and, now, likely extradition, as his appeal deadline has passed with nothing happening. The Serbian Radical Party, whose nominal head is also in The Hague facing war crimes charges, is coming out with threats against President Boris Tadic and others that are behind the drive to send Karadzic to face trial.

One Party official is quoted: "We warn Tadic that treason has never gone unpunished in Serbia. This is not a threat, but warning of the fate that followed traitors throughout Serbian history... I would remind the current rulers that they might not be as lucky as Zoran Djindjic. God punishes generations to come, and they should keep this in mind." I especially like the mention of history: get one of the Radicals talking, and you will be hearing about the battle of 1389 before long, and how Serbia, despite saving Europe and Christianity from Ottoman barbarism, was always on the side to be politically short-changed since time immemorial.

Veiled threats, if there ever were any; this is mild stuff coming from the ranks of these anti-establishment and hate-mongering political lunatics. Remember still that their leader, Vojislav Seselj, once publicly advocated a policy of infecting all Kosovo Albanians with HIV, so as to "solve" the Kosovo issue once and for all.

Indeed, the real revolutions will not begin in this part of the world until the recent past, as well as Belgrade's culpability, is fully explained and disclosed without qualifications based on ethnic nationalism and hostilities. More than anything, and here I echo one of my great teachers on the subject, the revolution will only be complete when one-third of the Serbian electorate, which they just did in the last election early this summer, stop voting for the Radical Party.