Belarus, "...further away from Europe and the rest of the world"

Or so said Gordon Johndroe, a White House spokesperson, reacting to news from this past March that the US Ambassador to Belarus had been expelled. The country's leadership insists it wants to forge better relations with the West (it has for some time), but without the frills of criticism and objection to a litany of human rights abuses and ongoing waves of political illiberalisms.

There is only so much defiance that can take place before real consequences kick in. Or, at least, that is what would normally be the case. But who, for a moment, really thinks that Belarus -- in the news right now for having ordered the further expulsion of ten US diplomats declared persona non Grata by President Aliaksander Lukashenka -- is a normal country?

I have maintained this contrary stand from the beginning of having studied the country: Belarus, under its current leadership, is an anomaly. It will continue being an anomaly so long as things carry on as they do. Lukashenka belongs to a bygone era, one that collapsed in 1991 because it imploded through and through.

It carries on, though. By some economic, Russian-backed miracle, it does, irrespective of what comes with being a moving train-wreck in a Europe that ceased playing the status-quo card a long time ago. This kind of news is not the first, and nor will it be the last, of its kind.

A heavy anniversary

`Tis a very sobering and stabbing journalistic piece here at Maclean's, which is a look at the Israeli-Palestinian morass, as it stands right now, coming close to the sixtieth anniversary of Israel's creation.

So writes journalist Michael Petrou: "Israel will be Jewish, or democratic. It can't be both. And if it can't be both, the Zionist dream on which Israel is founded will end. This is the gravest threat Israel faces on the eve of its 60th anniversary. It won't have another 60 years to address it."

In light of this, I doubt that it is an anniversary that many would wish to commemorate, if given a choice. The dream of Israel has come so close, but yet, in light of the ground and region-level realities, it is so terribly far away.

"Kosovo is a reality in our region..."

Stjepan Mesic is the President of Croatia, having won a second term in office in 2005. While on an official visit to Albania, he made a reference to his country's danger-laden, but precedent-setting decision to recognizing the independence of Kosovo.

Amongst other things, the President noted the following: "Kosovo is a reality in our region and everybody should learn to live with it...The only solution for the future of the region is regional cooperation and European integration."

He also threw a rhetorical shot at the ongoing problems of jingoism and nationalism that have been emanating out of the region -- including from those EU member states that have refused to recognize Kosovo. "We must stop being hostage of the past and the historical myths," he said.

Mesic is a brave and principled man. I remember, way back in 2000-2001, when he came to power following the death of his predecessor, Franjo Tudjman, he was one of the few (or only?) statesmen in ex-Yugoslavia that made poignant calls for reconciliation, an end to ethnic nationalism, as well as a return of Serb refugees to the Croatian Krajina region, from which they had been ethnically cleansed en masse in 1995. The reactions he got from nationalists within his own country was predictable, but it seems that his longevity has been secured; more moderate voices grew and recognized the validity of such points and of moving on.

Now is no exception. Hopefully, Mesic's words are being heeded by those that need such reminders the most.

Those whom the gods wish to destroy...

...they first make mad. Or so the adage goes.

On 18 April 1980, Zimbabwe scrapped its old name of Rhodesia and became an independent nation, with a new name. Robert Mugabe commemorated it today, the twenty-eighth anniversary of independence, with this speech.

"Our political history is well known, yet with time, we feel more challenged to recall it, especially for those who appear ignorant of it or are deliberately engaged in reversing the gains of our liberation struggle...We, not the British, established democracy based on one person, one vote - democracy which rejected racial or gender discrimination and upheld human rights and religious freedom."

What does not come out of the audio portion, however, is this jingoism: an encouragement for all Zimbabweans "to maintain utmost vigilance in the face of vicious British machinations and the machinations of our other detractors, who are allies of Britain...Whereas yesterday they relied on brute force to subjugate our people and plunder our resources, today they have perfected their tactics to more subtle forms."

Morgan Tsvangirai, on the same day, has been blackballed a "traitor" and British proxy by the Zimbabwean justice minister, Patrick Chinamasa, who cites a (forged) memorandum reproduced in the state-owned Herald. Rumour had it that the MDC would include some ZANU-PF personnel in a new government, similar to recent events in Kenya, in the event that such an option would be put on the table. Military hardliners, alas, rejected any such notions.

One need not emphasize that the electoral results from some three weeks ago are still not known. Does this even matter anymore?

On the Hamas bandwagon

Slightly disturbing news can be found here, with the announcement that former US President Jimmy Carter has embraced Hamas leaders, both literally and figuratively, while touring the region on a latest "peace initiative" of his own. Ask yourselves: would you embrace the likes of these thugs pictured at left?

So Carter saith: "Since Syria and Hamas will have to be involved in a final peace agreement, they have to be involved in discussions that lead to final peace." Quite true...but only when the two actually become sincere and cease in their attitude that seeks nothing less than Israel's complete destruction.

Anyone can do a Google search for Hamas' constitution, which does not mention Israel even once. They can also seek out the blood-stained statements from Hamas leaders relating to their views of the only Jewish state, and the only concessions they would ever offer it. I recall that Ismail Haniyah told the German paper Der Spiegel that he would offer, at best, a fifty-year "truce" with Israel in exchange for recognition.

Yigal Palmor, Israel's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, declared that "One cannot wonder how this attitude is supposed to promote peace and understanding." He was talking about Mr. Carter. Quite so; the former US President's altruism could be served in much better ventures than this particular one.

Thirteen days...and still no results

Professor Stephen Chan, of London's University College, has an analytical take on the future of Mugabe, which was published in this month's issue of Prospect magazine. Barring the outward support he appears to be receiving from neighbouring African statesmen, his removal from the political scene would be a quiet blessing to these countries -- not the least because Zimbabwe's economic meltdown has meant economic slowdown for these other countries.

Zimbabwean security forces, it is unofficially said, largely voted against the man; some 70 percent, to be specific. The desperation has hit everyone in the country, and these same traditional bastions of loyalty to the veteran leader have extended families that simply do not know from where their next meal is coming. As a general rule, if your army and security services say go, then there is little room for maneuvering or brokerage.

Writes Chan: "On the same day as the politburo met, the new Zimbabwean $50m note was introduced. That will buy a single cup of coffee. 20 per cent of the workforce is in employment, with a a semi-skilled worker commanding a monthly salary of around $700m. No one will give up a 14th of their salary for a cup of coffee. They will spend what they have on food, if food is available. The streets are full of people queuing for money or food, or just walking up and down — waiting. Despite the violence to come, they will wait, I am sure, until the runoff comes, and a very brave people will then consign Mugabe and his hardliners to history and, immunities scorned, to The Hague."

Meanwhile, back on the ground, the BBC reports that the Zimbabwean police have banned all political rallies, effective immediately. The main opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, is both planning a rally of his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in a few days, and has also called on Zimbabweans to resist. "We call upon transporters, workers, vendors and everyone to stay at home. The power is in our hands. Zimbabweans have been taken for granted for too long. We demand that the presidential election results be announced now." Tsvangirai also says the MDC will not take part in any electoral run-off vote.

Historians and journalists are going to have a heyday of sifting through all these developments and details when the dust finally does begin to settle.

Christopher Hitchens on Kosovo

Christopher Hitchens is one of my intellectual mentors. While I do not always agree with his platforms and political beliefs -- nor do I subscribe to his self-professed atheism and anti-theism, which he has most recently put forward in two books that he either authored or edited -- he is always fascinating to read, and entertaining to absorb.

He wrote, back at the end of February, a Slate column on Kosovo's independence. I recommend that everyone and anyone interested in the subject, or why countries like Canada were correct in finally recognizing its independence, should read it.

Amongst other things, he writes: "It's a shame, in retrospect, that it took us so long to diagnose the pathology of Serbia's combination of arrogance and self-pity, in which what is theirs is theirs and what is anybody else's is negotiable." Later still: "With the independence of Kosovo, the Yugoslav idea is finally and completely dead, but it was Serbian irredentism that killed the last vestige of that idea, and it is to that account that the whole cost ought to be charged."

As an aside: 36 UN countries have recognized Kosovo's independence. Lithuania is currently in the process of recognizing the state, while the Czech Republic, Macedonia and Portugal are slated to soon recognize it too. Other such countries include Bangladesh, Pakistan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

What now from Zimbabwe's "caretaker president"?

First, there is the speculation relating to some sort of re-count of votes. Now, an "emergency meeting" of African leaders in the area around Zimbabwe, to "discuss" the election that took place twelve days ago, of which the results have still not been released? What is there to discuss? Someone, or some people in high-up positions in Harare, have been duped by the election results, and the widespread unpopularity of Mugabe's regime that is quite evident. They cannot exactly hope for electoral miracles, so they are attempting to concoct one.

What is next? A "temporary emergency government" in place, with Robert Mugabe as its leader, to offset the possibility of social and political instability in the country? Never say never; certainly not in Zimbabwe with these current harlequins at the helm.

One thing that was always predictable, as reported here, is this: "Meanwhile, Zimbabwe's state-run Herald newspaper reports the ruling Zanu-PF has increased the number of constituency results it is contesting from 16 to 21." Can anyone detect an acute aura of deja-vu at work here?

"I won for Montenegro and its future"

Or so said Montenegrin President Filip Vujanovic, whose rule has gone hand-in-hand with that of Milo Djukanovic. Vujanovic re-won the presidential election yesterday, with a support of 51.4 percent of the vote. Either as President or Prime Minister, both of these figures make up the reformed socialists that have ruled unchallenged in Montenegro for almost twenty years. Not sure where the newspaper scan came from, or what the date is. Nonetheless, it conveys just what has happened in this small nation of some 650,000.

The linked report points out: "Since the split [from Serbia], its economy has boomed. Annual economic growth is about 8 percent and foreign direct investment since 2006 has been about €1 billion (US$1.6 billion), propelling Montenegro to the top of Europe's per capita foreign investment list...But it has had trouble getting rid of its image as a society rife with corruption."

Still, it is good news that Andrija Mandic, the pro-Serb candidate, who received just over 20 percent of votes, did not come anywhere near victory. He was set to rekindle ties with Serbia; hardly the time for such things to happen, given Kosovo's recent independence and the open wounds that still make the occasional headline in Canada and elsewhere.

Dith Pran, 1942-2008

I only came across this news perchance. Anyone familiar with the 1975-1979 period of Cambodian history will likely know of Dith Pran. His story was recounted by fellow New York Times correspondent Sydney Schanberg, and later by director Roland Joffe, when he crafted a sombre, ghoulish, but still phenomenal movie entitled The Killing Fields.

The man survived not only the mayhem imposed on Cambodia as a result of the fallout from the Vietnam war -- which is a story in itself, and is mercilessly recounted by William Shawcross in his 1979 book Sideshow -- but also the Khmer Rouge genocide, which consumed the lives of three of his siblings. As part of their utopian-fashioned national renewal of Cambodia, these bloodsuckers also consumed up to one in four other Cambodians. To this day, there is no one in the country who has not been affected, in some way or another, by them.

He went on to begin a new life in the United States, where he worked as a photographer and journalist, always speaking out about the reality of genocide worldwide. He once said: "The Jewish people's search for justice did not end with the death of Hitler and the Cambodian people's search for justice doesn't end with Pol Pot." That last bit is still ongoing, with rather mixed results; indeed, Pol Pot, the Khmer Rouge's leader, died in a jungle outpost some time in 1998.

Alas, Dith Pran could not stand up to the scourge of cancer, and he died early this morning (Sunday). All who empathize with the tragedy of Cambodia are at a sad loss because of it.

Another day, another term

What makes the current electoral nightmare in Zimbabwe so intriguing, from the bystander's perspective, is the level of journalistic and analytical multiplicity. It is as if every outlet is saying something different, insinuating a bunch of scenarios and outcomes all at once, and turning the whole problem into one big mud puddle. So much for clarity and awareness.

What is known quite clearly, however, from all the coverage is that official results have still not been fully disclosed. Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party has stated that its membership backs its leader to the hilt, saying that they endorse a run-off vote, to take place in the coming days.

The Telegraph's David Blair, however, has written about what really is taking place behind the scenes: "I think the gameplan is pretty clear. The Election Commission is not releasing the results as and when they become available. Instead, it already knows the outcome of these elections. The aim is to manage their disclosure so as to head off popular unrest and prepare the ground for a Mugabe victory...So results showing Zanu-PF and the MDC will be dripped out, before Zanu-PF gradually nose ahead." It looks like the worst prognosis is coming true, and President Mugabe will be in office for yet another fraudulent term.

On that somber note, here is a little shameless advertising. In November 2002, I wrote about Mugabe and the predicament in Zimbabwe. The piece is entitled "The Politics of Self-Preservation." While a lot has happened since then, for the worse, I think that my arguments are still relevant and, quite frankly, have been underscored. The full text can be found here.

Keeping the suspense

With this ongoing story, that is. With the right kind of international pressure, threats of unrest and frustration domestically, and infighting within the ranks of the Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) to compound a likely electoral defeat, Robert Mugabe is a has-been. It is befitting that he has not been seen in public since the election. There is likely not much for the man to see, except the end results of his policies.

David Blair, who is now the Daily Telegraph's diplomatic correspondent, wrote a book on Mugabe in 2002, which I recommend. Entitled Degrees in Violence, it is a work that still stands out for its journalistic qualities and details about the new century in Zimbabwe. I reviewed it some time (i.e. almost six years!) ago here.

Allow me, then, the liberty to quote from this review: "The ironic comparisons between Robert Mugabe and Ian Smith, the last white ruler of what was then called Rhodesia, are striking, since both were bitter enemies, yet have both unwittingly complimented one another. Mugabe has been no different from Smith - racism, xenophobia, brutal suppression of opposition, and more were traits of both leaders. Says Blair: 'Neither should have been allowed anywhere near running a country. Smith's true station in life was, perhaps, treasurer of a provincial rugby club. Mugabe would have made an excellent junior lecturer at the Revolutionary University of Havana. It was their country's enduring tragedy that these men were given such power' (p. 244)."

Let the events of here and now be a suitable way to end things off, without bangs and truncheons, but with the dignity and honour of just throwing in the towel. But, who seriously thinks Mugabe is a man of dignity and honour?