Thirteen days...and still no results

Professor Stephen Chan, of London's University College, has an analytical take on the future of Mugabe, which was published in this month's issue of Prospect magazine. Barring the outward support he appears to be receiving from neighbouring African statesmen, his removal from the political scene would be a quiet blessing to these countries -- not the least because Zimbabwe's economic meltdown has meant economic slowdown for these other countries.

Zimbabwean security forces, it is unofficially said, largely voted against the man; some 70 percent, to be specific. The desperation has hit everyone in the country, and these same traditional bastions of loyalty to the veteran leader have extended families that simply do not know from where their next meal is coming. As a general rule, if your army and security services say go, then there is little room for maneuvering or brokerage.

Writes Chan: "On the same day as the politburo met, the new Zimbabwean $50m note was introduced. That will buy a single cup of coffee. 20 per cent of the workforce is in employment, with a a semi-skilled worker commanding a monthly salary of around $700m. No one will give up a 14th of their salary for a cup of coffee. They will spend what they have on food, if food is available. The streets are full of people queuing for money or food, or just walking up and down — waiting. Despite the violence to come, they will wait, I am sure, until the runoff comes, and a very brave people will then consign Mugabe and his hardliners to history and, immunities scorned, to The Hague."

Meanwhile, back on the ground, the BBC reports that the Zimbabwean police have banned all political rallies, effective immediately. The main opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, is both planning a rally of his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in a few days, and has also called on Zimbabweans to resist. "We call upon transporters, workers, vendors and everyone to stay at home. The power is in our hands. Zimbabweans have been taken for granted for too long. We demand that the presidential election results be announced now." Tsvangirai also says the MDC will not take part in any electoral run-off vote.

Historians and journalists are going to have a heyday of sifting through all these developments and details when the dust finally does begin to settle.